Monday, September 17, 2012

Barack Obama - #4220 - This Graph Shows Why Obama is Ahead in Some of the Polls - The Blaze (2) Republicans Will Win Because We Know What's at Stake - American Thinker (3) Obama's Support down 25% with Jewish Voters - American Thinker

Ever since the arguably skewed CNN poll of a few weeks back, conservative voters have been looking at the methodology of polling companies with an increasing amount of skepticism. The fact that most polls have used a model that tries to mimic the voter turnout in 2008, when Democrats beat Republican turnout by 7 points (as opposed to presidential elections like 2004, where turnout between the two parties was relatively even), has not improved this state of affairs. And now, the suspicion of poll bias appears to have yet one more piece of evidence to support it. Via a tweet by anonymous poll analyst NumbersCruncher comes the following graph showing the degree of oversampling of Democrats employed by the most recent polls (all of which show Obama leading Romney): The real take-away which I have mentioned the times I blog national polls is that many of those national polls are HORRIBLE for Obama, namely the ABC/Washington Post and CBS/New York Times polls where you have large Democrat over-samplings but rather small leads for Obama. This means if Obama doesn’t meet or beat his stellar 2008 turnout advantage he’s in for a drubbing on election day. These over-samplings serve a few purposes but mainly drive down enthusiasm for Republicans while assisting the Obama campaign with “bandwagon” supporters who simply like being on the winning team (they’re real and they count).  Read more..........  Note: This is why I only use Rasmussen Polls on this web site.

Republicans Will Win Because We Know What's at Stake - American Thinker - The Romney election team has decided the most effective course to re-election is through centrist voters. They have chosen to contrast Romney's effectiveness versus the nation's disappointed hopes in Obama. That may be the right approach to win the small handful of swing voters. But that isn't why we will win this election. We will win because conservatives know what is at stake and we know we can't afford to lose. That is why the Tea Party base is going to work their butts off to get out the vote. That is how we took back the House in 2010. It is how Ted Cruz won the Senate nomination in Texas, though he started out 2% in the polls. It is how a career politician like Richard Lugar was replaced by Richard Mourdock in Indiana. It is why Paul Ryan has generated more enthusiasm than Romney. It is why we have elected a younger generation of stunningly excellent deficit-hawk governors whom conservative voters are jazzed about. The Republican establishment, the Democratic Party, the mainstream media, and self-promoting light-weights don't want the public to be informed about who Obama is. It is too creepy and too awful. Few people are willing to say those hard truths about our first black president. It isn't nice. It doesn't make you look moderate. Read more.......... 

Obama's Support down 25% with Jewish Voters - American Thinker One group in particular stands out in its decline in support for President Obama. Oddly enough, the major media are ignoring this startling finding. Jonathan Tobin writes in Commentary Contentions: President Obama may be enjoying a slight, if likely temporary, bounce in the polls this week. But one of the surveys showing him with a lead in a tight race over Mitt Romney also provides a breakdown of the data that confirms predictions that he is losing up to a quarter of the Jewish votes he got in 2008. The Investors Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll gives a breakdown of religion along with other demographic groups and shows Obama leading among Jews by a margin of 59 to 35 percent with six percent undecided. While that is still a majority it is a dramatic decline from the 78 percent of the Jewish vote he got four years ago. Read more.....

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