Thursday, August 23, 2012

Elections 2012 - #4153 - Analysis of Election Factors Points to Romney Win, University of Colorado Study Says - University of Colorado, Boulder (2) Former Rep. Virgil Goode Hands in 20,000 Signatures to Make Virginia Presidential Ballot - Washington Examiner (3) Poll: Allen, Kaine Now in Literal Dead Heat - Washington Times

A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney. The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. “Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program. According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties. For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.” Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.  Read more.........

Former Rep. Virgil Goode Hands in 20,000 Signatures to Make Virginia Presidential Ballot - Washington Examiner - Former Virginia Congressman Virgil Goode has turned in 20,500 signatures in his quest to make the presidential ballot in his home state, an effort that could potentially derail Republican Mitt Romney's presidential aspirations in a critical battleground state. At least 10,000 valid signatures are due Friday at noon to the State Board of Elections to make the ballot. Election officials will next send the petitions to local registrars to verify the signatures. .............. Republicans and Romney have the most to lose by Goode's presence in the race, particularly in Virginia. Goode remains popular in conservative circles in southern Virginia, an area where he served as a pro-gun, pro-life Democrat in the state Senate, and in Congress as a Democrat, Republican and independent between 1997 and 2009.  Read more.......

Poll: Allen, Kaine Now in Literal Dead Heat - Washington Times - The 2012 Virginia Senate race has been within the margin of error for virtually the entire campaign, but Republican George Allen now has literally drawn even with Democrat Tim Kaine in a new poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling after narrowly trailing in the firm's previous five polls. Both former governors took 46 percent of the vote, compared to a 2-point, 46 percent to 44 percent edge for Mr. Kaine last month, according to the survey from PPP.  Read more........

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