Friday, July 29, 2011

Debt Ceiling Debate - #3120 -SENATE UPDATE: Boehner Bill Defeated 59-41 Update: Senate to Vote on Reid's Bill - Hot Air (2) BOEHNER BILL PASSES - HOUSE VOTES 218-210 - Hot Air (3) Analysis: Obama's Leadership Image on the Line in Debt Saga - Reuters (4) New Boehner Bill Likely to Pass the House.......Hot Air (5) Suckers - Redstate

SENATE UPDATE:  Boehner’s bill is dead — but not on a party-line vote. It was 59/41, presumably because Senate tea partiers like DeMint and Rand Paul voted no. I’ll post the roll as soon as I have it.  Update: Another surprise: It looks like Reid wants a vote on his bill after all and is “filling the amendment tree” to make sure the GOP doesn’t try to add anything to it. But he doesn’t have the votes. Supposedly, he’s called a presser at 8:45 p.m. to whine about a GOP filibuster.  Update: McConnell’s offering to vote on Reid’s bill now but Reid won’t agree unless it’s a simple majority. He can’t get to 60. Republicans are holding the line (or at least 41 are).  Update: The six Republicans who voted against Boehner’s bill: DeMint, Lee, Paul, Vitter, and Orrin Hatch and Lindsey Graham, both of whom are in robust reelection-pander mode.  Read more.......

FROM HOT AIR: Update: The deed is done, 218-210. Time to switch over to CSPAN 2 and watch Reid and the Democrats go to work. I’ll post the House roll as soon as it’s available. Incidentally, this Hill article makes it sound like the Senate might not vote on Reid’s bill. The plan, apparently, is to hold a vote right away to table Boehner’s bill and then have Reid and McConnell huddle to produce a compromise bill. That bill will be presented for a cloture vote late tonight — if they can work out the details — so that things can move forward per proper procedure before we hit the ceiling.
Update: Via Fox reporter Chad Pergram, the 22 Republicans who voted no: Amash, Bachmann, Broun, Chaffetz, Cravaack, DesJarlais, Duncan (SC), Gowdy, Graves (GA), Huelskamp, Johnson (Ill), Jordan, King (IA), Latham, Mack (FL), McClintock, Mulvaney, Paul, Scott (SC), Southerland, Walsh, Wilson (SC).  Robert  Hurt, Va. 5th District voted for the Bill.  Read entire article: Boehner Palooza; Update: U.S. Will Probably Stay AAA Says Moodys......

President Barack Obama's credibility as a leader hangs in the balance along with America's gold-plated credit rating as he strives to break a debt impasse with Republicans and avoid a ruinous default.  Even if a deal to raise the debt limit emerges ahead of an August 2 deadline -- just six days away -- Obama faces a risk of being perceived as weak if he appears too willing to make concessions.  The political fallout for Obama could be far greater if there is no agreement. A default and government-debt downgrade could send the U.S. economy into another recession, potentially dooming Obama's prospects for re-election in 2012.  That makes the crisis especially difficult for Obama to navigate and gives Republican lawmakers a fair amount of leverage as they push for steep spending cuts in exchange for raising the legal limit on the country's borrowing.  "When you're running for re-election, you want to have a strong leadership image," said Stephen Wayne, a professor of government at Georgetown University. "The longer there is no resolution, the weaker the president looks."  "He's got to do something to get an agreement or to state his position so clearly that he can blame the opposition party for not adhering to it," Wayne added.  Obama could reap political gains if Republicans are perceived as overplaying their hand.  Read more......  AW:  Rush Limbaugh featured this article on his radio show this afternoon, he couldn't believe it came from Reuters.

New Boehner Bill Likely to Pass the House.... - Hot Air - This morning’s revisions to the once-revised Boehner bill gave it life in the House while extinguishing what little chance it had in the Senate. The new requirement to pass the Republican version of the Balanced Budget Amendment for the second tranche of the debt-ceiling increase — not to call a floor vote, but a requirement for passage — amounts to a poison pill that gives Harry Reid all of the excuse he needs to kill this latest version as soon as it gets out of the house. Bryan Preston notes the change in the bill, but asks a slanted question: It adds a Balanced Budget Amendment as a prerequisite for passing the next round of debt ceiling increase. As many as 20 Democratic Senators have said in the past that they support a BBA. Was that all talk and posturing to appear moderate, or did they mean it?  Update: Conn Carroll says this is a compromise, and one designed to get Democratic votes on the BBA: 1) The Boehner bill would raise the debt limit before the August 2nd deadline without the need for a Balanced Budget Amendment to be passed first. Yes, a Balanced Budget Amendment would have to be passed for the second debt limit hike sometime in the spring, but a completely new deal could be worked out before then. 2) The Boehner bill does not require that the Balanced Budget Amendment sent to the states to trigger the second traunch have a two-thirds super-majority requirment for raising taxes. This makes the BBA much more likely to win Democrat votes.  More likely than what? The proposed BBA caps federal spending at less than 20% of GDP. How many Democrats will go for that? You could count them on the fingers of one hand, and still have enough left for bowling. And if the idea of putting it as a requirement for a second tranche is to leave room for a completely different deal, why bother to include it at all? Just stick with the two-tranche approach and make it harder for Reid and Obama to say no.  Read entire article.......

Suckers - Redstate - Erick Erickson - As I called it. John Boehner now has the votes to pass his plan. Harry Reid just declared that the only compromise that will pass will be his plan. “The only compromise there is — is mine,” he said. Harry Reid will take John Boehner’s plan, insert all the Democrats’ demands, and send it back to the House daring the GOP to kill “the Boehner Plan.” The Democrats will line up to vote for it. It will pass. I do believe someone predicted this would happen. Congrats, House Conservatives.

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