Saturday, October 9, 2010

Fall Elections 2010 and Va. Fifth - #2251 - Charlie Cook's List of DOOM - Redstate

For those who don’t know: Charlie Cook is one of the more respected political handicappers out there, with a solid reputation for accurate forecasting. I can personally attest to that, given that in 2008 I glumly used his site to assist me in the task of watching things spiral downward for the GOP. As you can imagine, the 2010 election cycle has been a lot more enjoyable in that regard: and never so much so as recently, when Charlie Cook broke a rule. You see, he doesn’t like to rate incumbents in trouble as being more in trouble than “Toss-Up.” It’s a reasonable restriction, given that incumbency remains a powerful advantage for candidates, even when they’re in trouble - and Charlie Cook followed that rule back in 2008; Cook is already forecasting twelve, this cycle. There is no question that Democrats have their backs to the wall. It’s unprecedented to see so many incumbents running behind their challengers.
While the Cook Political Report has a general policy of not putting unindicted incumbents in categories worse than our “Toss Up” column, which is akin to the critical ward of a hospital, we are now looking at moving a dozen or so Democratic House incumbents into the Lean Republican column..    Read more.........    While, obviously I am most interested in the Fifth, I am listing all 12.......... Grayson, oh what a joy!  Article contributed by Steve Peters.

These races are now Leaning Republican.
AZ-01-(D) Ann Kirkpatrick - (R)-Paul Gosar, CO-04 (D) Betsy Markey - (R) Cory Gardner,  FL-08 -(D)Alan Grayson - (R) Daniel Webster, FL-24 (D)-Suzanne Kosmas  - (R) - Sandy Adams,  IL-11 (D) Debbie Halvorson (R) Adam Kinzinger, OH-01- (D)Steve Driehaus (R) Steve Chabot, OH-15-(D)Mary Jo Kilroy (R) Steve Stivers, PA-03 (D)Kathy Dahlkemper (R) Mike Kelly, TX-17 (D) Chet Edwards (R) Bill Flores, VA-02 (D) Glenn Nye (R) Scott Rigell,  VA-05  (D) Tom Perriello (R) Robert Hurt,  WI-08 (D) Steve Kagen (R) Reid Ribble.

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