Saturday, October 23, 2010

Fall Elections 2010 - #2315 - The Third Wave in a Row - National Journal

Republicans had a tsunami phase, then Democrats had a natural tightening, and now things have stabilized in the Newton's Laws of Motion-phase, where for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. One state might be improving for Democrats, another for Republicans, but they seem to net out with few if any new broad trends. Strategists for each party are often staring at contradictory poll numbers from multiple pollsters -- perhaps one set of numbers conducted for their party's Senate nominee, another for their party's Senate campaign committee, another for their party's gubernatorial nominee and yet another from their party's governors' association. Some can show a tightening, others a widening. Lower-turnout midterm elections are always more difficult to poll than a high-turnout presidential year. With this year's enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, pollsters find themselves trying to decide between weighting against funny samples or going with the flow, not knowing which is accurate.  What this means is that we will likely have our third wave election in a row this year, and the bigger this one is, the more likely that there will be a countervailing wave in either 2012 or 2014. Read more.......... Article recommended by Steve Peters.  One of the best reviews of what is happening in the election process I have read.


Morning Jay "Special "Penultimate Predictions" Edition - Weekly Standard - 1. The House. The following chart reviews the independent vote in the polls in the RealClearPolitics average of the generic ballot:
If we assume that undecided independent voters break the way decided independent voters have already broken, then that would yield a 63-37 advantage for Republicans among independents.  What about the party spreads? Let’s assume that the turnout in 2010 will resemble the turnout in 2004, a year in which both party bases were activated. Let’s also assume that both sides do as well with their bases as they did in 2004. Finally, let’s plug that 63-37 Republican advantage among independents into the equation. What do we get?  Read more.......  Article recommended by Steve Peters.

Pew Research Reveals The Number of the Beast - Redstate - If I didn’t know better, I’d think that Pew was just having its little joke by making sure that its latest report on the midterms had a URL of http://people-press.org/report/666/. If it did, then Pew would be well on its way to winning the contest of being The Coolest Research Center EVER - but it’s much more likely that this was just an accident. A very, very hysterical accident.  Certainly the contents are. The very shortest version: the generic ballot flipped in a month from 44/47 Republican/Democrat to 46/42 Republican/Democratic among registered voters (the likely voter model only mildly increased from 50/43 R/D to 50/40 R/D). That would be bad enough for the Other Side - but there’s more:  Read the entire article:.......  

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