Saturday, October 9, 2010

Fall Elections 2010 -#2246 - Intrade Bets on the 2010 Election Results

Republicans to gain 50 or more seats in 2010 mid-term elections 52.054% Which equates to about 52 seats.
The Democrats to control the Senate after 2010 Congressional Elections only 47.5% which equates to 51 seats and Republican control of the Senate.
There are some interesting stories regarding groups of regular individuals with diverse skill sets, who by consensus are able to "get" the right answer to difficult problems a large percent of the time. One such group was asked to determine the location of a missing submarine on the bottom of the open ocean...and they did! The US Navy was unable to find locate it on their own, even though it had expended great time, energy, and resources to the search. This is the concept by which the Intrade system of betting works, and is normally more right then wrong. Individuals with various backgrounds and available information are betting their own money on the outcome, and when you "total" up all their "knowledge/skill sets, be careful going against what they are telling you.  Article and commentary provided by Steve Peters.

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