Friday, October 1, 2010

Fall Elections 2010 - #2208 - Michael Barone: Dems Retreat to Coast as GOP Rules Vast Interior - Human Events

Here's an exercise for some evening when you're curious about big nationwide trends in this year's elections. Get an outline map showing the 50 states, and take a look at the latest poll averages in in each race for senator and governor. Color in the percentage (rounded off; no need for tenths) by which either the Republican or Democratic candidate is leading (I use blue for Republicans, red for Democrats) in each state. The results are revealing, even breathtaking. The map of the Senate races shows Republicans leading over almost all the landmass of America. Democrats are ahead in the three West Coast states and Hawaii (though not by much in California and Washington) and by 1 point in Nevada. They're also ahead in four states along the Atlantic Coast -- Maryland, Delaware, New York, Connecticut -- plus Vermont.  Read more.......  Extrapolating from the 2008 election results, some Democrats foresaw a 40-year period of Democratic dominance. It turned out to last about 40 weeks, as Republicans passed Democrats in polls on the popular vote for the House in August 2009.  Article and commentary contributed by Steve Peters.

Rothenberg Warns Dems That Senate Can Still Be Lost - After Christine O’Donnell won the Republican nomination for the Senate race in Delaware, Democrats appeared to heave a sigh of relief. The long-shot path to losing the Senate appeared to require the GOP to take Joe Biden’s old seat, and with Mike Castle sidelined, their control of one chamber of Congress looked assured. Not so fast, warns political analyst and prognosticator Stuart Rothenberg at CQ Politics:  Delaware’s Republican primary may well have lulled Democrats into a sense of complacency about their ability to hold the Senate after November’s elections. They would be wise to wake up if they want to avoid a nasty surprise on election night. … With a month to go until Nov. 2, Republicans have a clear advantage in five seats held by Democrats, with another five seats still in play.  Read more........

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