Thursday, September 2, 2010

Fall Elections 2010 - #2091 - Larry Sabato - "Sixty Days to Go" - Labor Day Predictions - Sabato's Crystal Ball



















For decades I’ve advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story—whether the picture pleases or not. The human (and partisan) tendency to twist facts into pretzels in order to produce a desired result must be avoided at all costs. We’ve been patient and cautious here at the Crystal Ball as a year’s worth of facts has accumulated. We’ve sifted the polls, cranked up the models, and watched the candidates and campaigns closely. All political observers have “gut feelings” about an election year, but feelings make for good songs and lousy predictions. Forecasting is an imprecise art. People who get too far ahead of the facts or are too insistent about what will happen are usually partisans—openly or in disguise. The Crystal Ball’s predictions are clinical. We are fond of people in both parties. We cheer for no one. 2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a question of degree.  Read more........
*Article contributed by Steve Peters

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