Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Virginia Fifth District Race - #2048 - Polling Data on House Districts - American Action Forum

East Coast Incumbent Shock: American Action Forum Polling Finds 52 Percent of Voters Say It Is Time for Someone Else. American Action Forum Releases Survey Results for 12 East Coast House Districts. WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The American Action Forum commissioned live-caller survey polling in CT 04, CT 05, FL 24, NY 20, NY 23, NY 25, PA 03, PA 10, PA 11, PA 12, VA 05 and WV 03 – which were set by gender, age, and county consistent with past participation in the district. Each district included 400 interviews, for 4,800 interviews in the region. The East Coast analysis memo can be found HERE and the polling memos and crosstabs for the 12 district surveys can be found below. The polls conducted over a 3-day period focused on voter attitudes with regards to local incumbents, national political leaders, health care, the economy, debt, ‘cap and trade’ legislation and taxes.

Key findings: The aggregate deserves reelection/time for someone else result shows that 35 percent of the voters in these districts say their representative deserves reelection while 52 percent say it is time for someone else. A plurality of voters prefer a Republican on the generic ballot test. While each of these twelve districts have Democratic incumbents, voters in these districts prefer a Republican to a Democrat as their next congressman by a 38 to 31 percent margin. Voters say the country is on the wrong track by a nearly three-to-one margin. Sixty-eight percent of the likely voters in these districts say the country is off on the wrong track, while just 24 percent say the country is heading in the right direction. Read more........

The State of the Virginia 05 Race - Ayres McHenry Associates - Our polling, conducted for American Action Forum on July 28, 29, 31, and August 1, with 400 likely general election voters, shows a competitive contest in the district. Despite challenger Robert Hurt having 75 percent name recognition compared to Representative Tom Perriello’s 95 percent name recognition, Hurt leads by a 49 to 43 percent margin. Beyond the ballot test, the key results from the survey are:

1. The economy is the most important issue, followed by government spending. 2. Voters identify most of the positive characteristics tested with Hurt. 3. Perriello’s support for ObamaCare is his greatest tested weakness. 4. Voters in the district view both Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi unfavorably. All respondents were selected randomly from a list of registered voters in the district, and
indicated they are likely to vote in the elections for Congress this fall, and interviews were
conducted by live interviewers. Quotas were set by gender, age, and county consistent with past
participation. The margin of error is ±4.90 percent when respondents split evenly on a question.  Read more about each of these points.......


Survey of Likely Voters in Va. 05 - Hello, this is with Ayres, McHenry & Associates, a national public opinion research company. We're talking with people throughout the country for just a few minutes about some issues facing the nation. We are not trying to sell anything, your answers are completely confidential, and we would really appreciate your cooperation.  (DO NOT
PAUSE).
A. Are you registered to vote in the county in which you live?
YES........................................................GO TO QUESTION C
NO.........................................................GO TO QUESTION B
B. Is there anyone else in your household who is registered to vote in your county?
YES......May I speak with that person please? GO TO INTRO
NO........................................................THANK AND CLOSE
C. How likely would you say you are to vote in the elections for Congress this fall: absolutely certain, very likely, somewhat likely, or not too likely?
ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN................................................66%
VERY LIKELY..................................................................26%
SOMEWHAT LIKELY........................................................9%
NOT TOO LIKELY.............................THANK AND CLOSE
DON’T KNOW/REFUSED.................THANK AND CLOSE
Read more about questions asked........

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