Monday, August 2, 2010

Fall Elections 2010 - #1995 - Michael Barone -Why Dems Will Lose Congress - New York Post

Democratic spin doctors have set out how their side is going to hold on to a majority in the House. They'll capture four at-risk Republican seats, hold half of the next 30 or so Democratic at-risk seats, and avoid significant losses on target seats lower on the list.  That's one plausible scenario. The shift of opinion away from Democrats, so evident in the polls, could turn out to be illusory. The widely held assumption that Republicans will turn out in greater numbers than Democrats could prove wrong. Democratic candidates do indeed have a money advantage in many close races, and their campaign committee has more cash than its Republican counterpart........To see why, take a look at the generic ballot question: Which party's candidate will you vote for in elections to the House? The current realclearpolitics.com average shows Republicans ahead by 45 percent to 41 percent. Ten of this month's 15 opinion polls asking the question had Republicans ahead; Democrats led in four (twice by 1 percent), and one poll showed a tie........Today, a lot more Democratic incumbents seem to be trailing Republican challengers in polls. Jim Geraghty of National Review Online has compiled a list of 13 Democratic incumbents trailing in polls released over the last seven weeks.  They're from all over the country: one each from Arizona, Arkansas, Illinois, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota; two from Virginia; three from Pennsylvania. Most if not all of these incumbents are personally attractive, hardworking and ethically unsullied.
Some of these poll numbers are mind-boggling. Tom Perriello, a 727-vote winner in Virginia 5 in 2008, has been running two weeks of humorous ads showing what a hard worker he is. A poll shows him trailing Republican state Sen. Robert Hurt 58 percent to 35 percent.   Read more........


Voters Want Super-sized Government to Crash Diet - Michael Barone - Real Clear Politics Let's put government on a diet. That's what voters seem to be saying in response to the Barack Obama Democrats' vast expansion of the size and scope of government.  Evidence comes from pollster Scott Rasmussen. He asked likely voters -- his usual sample, which tilts more Republican than all adults -- whether increased government spending is good or bad for the economy. The results were unambiguous. Good for the country? Twenty-eight percent. Bad for the country? Fifty-two percent.  He got similar results when he asked whether increasing the federal debt is good or bad for the economy. Likely voters believe it's bad for the economy by a 56 percent to 17 percent margin.  Read more......

Tax Hikes Planned for Lame Duck Session - Human Events - Liberals in Congress have a plan to raise your taxes after the elections this fall, something they must do to continue feeding the Obama Administration’s spending addiction. Watch for them to act after the midterm elections under the cover of the report from the bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. You don’t need a commission to see that President Obama’s policies have led to out-of-control federal spending and a growing federal government. According to the Congressional Budget Office, publicly held federal debt will hit 62% by the end of this fiscal year. Compare this to 2007, when publicly held federal debt was at 36%. If the President and the commission don’t recommend comprehensive reform of entitlement programs, then the government will have to try to raise taxes radically on all Americans to pay for Obamacare, a potential new stimulus plan, and to service the ballooning federal debt. Read more.......

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